The SDLP Assembly member who misleads on demography

Mr D Bradley: ……We know from the chief inspector’s report — which was debated earlier today — that many post-primary schools, particularly in the non-selective sector, are continuing to feel the effects of demographic decline. Enrolment figures have dropped by almost 4,000, and more than one third of schools have fewer than 500 pupils, which is potentially disastrous. Demographic decline is going to worsen over the next few years, which will lead to unplanned outcomes in the form of school closures in some areas. We need to act now before that situation occurs.

Perhaps Mr Bradley MLA  should study the Quarterly Report of the Registrar General before parroting the mantra of the DENI on their outdated rationale for schools estate change. The birth rate in Northern Ireland can be easily followed in the graph below.

THe Rise in the Birth Rate

50,000 empty desks: How the DENI got it wrong

Last year saw 25,600 births registered — the highest number recorded since 1991 and a massive 20% increase since 2002.

So say the figures from the Registrar General’s Office. The numbers are verified, accurate and not subject to political manipulation..

It is a pity for parents that the Department of Education for Northern Ireland were unable to use their skills to predict the impact for the furure of education provision. Many schools have been closed as part of the DENI rationalisation plan and no doubt heavy expenditure will have to take place in order to accomodate demand in the next few years.

Perhaps the reader can follow the trend line and tell the DENI which direction the trend is headed.

http://www.nisra.gov.uk/archive/demography/publications/qtr_report/qtr3_2008.pdf

Barry Gardiner, former Minister of Education, issued a press release stating: http://www.deni.gov.uk/consultationpaper.pdf 

Demographic Decline the lowest ever seen in Northern Ireland. 

 The decline in the population of pre-school children has been significant in recent years. Until 2001/02 the size of the pre-school cohort was usually between 24,000 and 25,000 children. In 2002/03 it fell to undern23,500, and is expected to continue declining until at least 2010, when it will have reduced to around 21,000. The current birth rate, at 1.8 children per female, is down from 2.5 per female 20 years ago and is and is the lowest ever seen in Northern Ireland.

Getting it wrong is a speciality subject for Ministers of Education.